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Season Finale-Nightmare Moons Alternate Timeline


Solana

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This topic is to discuss just how bad Nightmare Moons return would have been.

Would it be practically un-survivable as some seem to suggest, meaning not much more than the castle and immediate area would remain?

Would it be possible for, at minimum, the entire nation to survive? (Not to be confused with thrive)

Or would the only differences be that there is now a tyrant for a ruler and it's harder to see?

 

My personal opinion would be the second, but that's why I'm starting this thread.

I'm starting this based on a discussion taking place in the Official season finale discussion, but because that thread is meant to discuss the episode as a whole, I'm making this one to discuss specifically NMM's alternate timeline.

Obviously, I'm going to defend what I believe, but I expect you do to the same.

If you provide me with information that can't be argued with anything present in the show, I'll update this post to include it.

 

As of now, here is how I think things would be:

 

One noteworthy concern would be temperature.
While up for argument, I have reason to believe that the temperature in Equestria would not be freezing due to a lack of the sun.

Referencing the episode that Rainbow Dash performed her second sonic rainboom, and Twilight gave Rarity a magical pair of wings, it appears that the sun in Equestria is MUCH smaller and MUCH closer, therefore MUCH cooler than our sun.
After flying up some distance, Rarity's wings caught fire.
If the sun was a similar distance to their world in comparison to ours, in order for such a relatively short distance to cause something like this to ignite, it would have to be hot enough to scorch the land as well, so the only way I see this to be possible is if their sun was much cooler, much smaller, and much closer.  This would allow such a relatively short distance of travel towards it to make that large of a temperature difference.
A side effect of this would be that it is small and cool enough that it's heat, in all likelihood, can't be felt as far away as the planets surface.
Scaling this down just a bit, imagine a candle vs a camp fire.
With a camp fire, a distance of several feet doesn't make a noticeable difference in the amount of heat you feel.  however with a candle, a distance of inches makes a huge difference.
The temperature of the planet must be regulated by other means.  As odd as it sounds, this must mean that nights aren't any cooler than days.  Or if they are, it is still regulated by something other than their sun.

 

Further supporting that this could be the case, it is seen multiple times that what we consider to be mythology here is how things really work there.  Afterall, we have the Cerberus and MANY creatures such as Centaur, and Manticore based on mythology, and consider that Luna and Celestia are references to Apollo (God of the sun) and Artemis (Godess of the moon), and the episode above is referencing the story of Icarus.

In certain mythological beliefs, the sun IS closer to the earth, close enough birds can reach it, and a god pulls it behind his chariot across the sky.  Replace this god with Celestia, and chariot with magic and it really isn't that much different.


Another concern is Food.
The primary concern is that plants can't survive without light, and food comes from plants.
Originally, My concept was that plantlife MUST still be around (Possibly due to a spell) because you see it in the episode.  Some arguments include that if such a spell exists, it's likely that it only covers the area around the castle itself.  This is assuming plants in the land of ponies use photosynthesis as ours do.  Maybe their sun doesn't produce much in the way of heat, but it obviously produces light on par with our sun.
Given that the atmosphere is still breathable after 5 years (Assuming that they also provide O2 and remove CO2 as they do in our world), this suggested that plantlife must still exist wide scale.

But an argument was made that I really can't disagree with.
Now, assuming their moon works the same as ours and reflects light from the sun rather than magically producing light of its own, and assuming their world is round as well, their sun still exists, and would be on the other side of the planet, creating eternal day. This side of the planet would not be burnt to a crisp due to the reason mentioned above.  This side of the planet would be capable of sustaining enough plantlife to produce oxygen and remove CO2, which would likely reach Equestria, keeping the air breathable.

As of now, it's only obvious that plants can still grow around the castle.  Is this due to the everfree forest being 'weird', or the result of a spell being cast by Nightmare Moon, or even various unicorns?
If it is from a spell, would normal unicorns be capable of using it in a small area, or would it be exclusive to NMM, and unicorns as OP as Starlight Glimmer?
If it is exclusive only to NMM and particularly gifted unicorns, would NMM be strong enough to sustain enough farmland to allow survival for Equestria?

Assuming there is a spell.
Lets assume the vegetation around the castle is due to a spell exclusive to NMM.
All we know about it is that while it doesn't produce light, it produces something plants can use in place of light for photosynthesis, and that it doesn't need to be sustained, otherwise NMM's horn would have been glowing for the entire episode.

Arguably, maybe it needs to be sustained for several hours a day.  This would allow for the lack of horn glowing for the duration of the episode.
I'm not sure I see NMM wasting several hours a day, every day, for 5 years, just so she can have a pretty courtyard and the forest.  I would expect that she would only do this for enough land to grow what food is needed, and therefore, I doubt she would allow for wasted space, minus the very immediate area of the castle itself.  After 5 years of this, she would probably have crops growing very near the castle exterior so using this spell would be easier.  And if this was the case, we likely would have seen some.
For these reasons, I believe it doesn't need to be sustained.  Maybe cast once per day, but the spell likely can sustain itself for a while. 

 

Or maybe this spell just alters plants to the point they can use moonlight to grow.  Who knows?  Magic is weird.
And I'm sure she attempts to cover a wide enough area to produce enough food for the kingdom to survive (Though not necessarily thrive), not because she is benevelent and cares for her subjects, but because she wants to rule, and have ponies to rule over.  She is going to keep the population as high as possible.

If she's capable of altering plantlife to use the moon to grow, problem solved.
But it's been argued that this manner of magic is outside her area of expertise.  I'm sure there must be a unicorn somewhere that has studied this.  If so, this unicorn may have taught a spell to do this to NMM. While studying plantlife may be outside of the norm for her, If another figured out the spell, i'm sure she's capable of learning it.  While i'm sure this unicorn has no love for NMM due to this eternal night situation, and would want to do anything but help her, short of finding a way to bring back the sun, this would be their best chance for survival, both for this unicorn, and any ponies this unicorn knows and loves.  If only 1 unicorn in Equestria could figure out a spell like this, that's all it would take.  And it's possible one was found even before NMM's return, and written down in one of many spell books and scrolls.  If Twilight can change an animal into a fruit (frog into an orange if I recall.  Maybe it was a bird),  or mice into horses, I don't find it hard to believe that another unicorn could have figured out how to alter plants just enough to require less light.

Is there any reason a spell like this can't exist?

Now if this happens, it would not require her to constantly cast the spell.  Nor would she have to be powerful enough to be able to cover all of Equestria in one go.  With a bit of traveling, she could alter all the plantlife in Equestria over the course of months, assuming she doesn't have to do it one plant at a time.  If she does, it stands to reason that she could instead just use this spell on orchards, one tree at a time, and still finish in a relatively short time. (2 years?)
And again, this kind of 'labor' would likely be 'beneath her', but unless other unicorns could cast this spell, she wouldn't have much of a choice.  Again, she wants to rule, therefore she needs living ponies to rule over.  

But assuming this spell is on par with the difficulty of the two that twilight used i mentioned earlier,  a unicorn (Albeit gifted) would be able to perform this spell.  While as a unicorn, Twilight was incredibly gifted in the number of spells she cast, I'm sure there wasn't any spell she cast that was beyond the reach of all unicorns.  Maybe there were no others that could learn the sheer number of spells as twilight, but I doubt that any of them were exclusive to her.  It stands to reason that for each spell she knew, somewhere there was another unicorn that knew or could learn it too.  In short, if this spell existed, surely there were at least a small number of unicorns that could use it.  And it is very likely that NMM would have sent them out to all the orchards to use it.

It's also been pointed out that plants would start dying after about a week without sunlight.
This would mean that this team of unicorns would have a week to travel across Equestria to use the spell, altering them.
After a little digging, this would be true with smaller plants, but with larger plants like trees, they could last much longer.  Sure, the leaves would die and fall off, but this is for similar reasons as to why leaves die and fall off during the winter.  Once the trees have shed their leaves, they 'shut down' so to speak, in order to survive until proper growing conditions are met again.  Some tree species last longer than 6 months.  Not to mention that seeds would last indefinitely.  With any luck, this would be enough time for the unicorns to alter enough orchards to feed the nation.  Again, hunger may still persist, but death from starvation will be minimized somewhat.

Is there any reasons this can not happen?

 

Do you have a substantial argument as to why something here can't be the case?

Are there any other issues that need to be addressed?

Lets figure this out.

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First off, a few minor things:

I don't agree with your conclusions about the sun's size and effect.  While I agree it's probably much smaller than ours (by virtue of it orbiting the planet, rather than the other way around), it still provides heat and light for the entire continent, and is visible across said continent throughout the day.  I don't think something that far reaching would be noticeably affected by the change of a few feet.  In the case of Rarity's wings, I think it's either that they were being warmed constantly and it just wasn't visible until they fell apart.  Either that or the spell decayed, which made them suddenly vulnerable to heat.

For that matter, I don't think the sun shining exclusively on one side of the planet would result in moderate temperatures.  It were just a question of distance, the sun wouldn't be able to keep anything warm, and the climate of the whole continent would either be much colder or require a different source of heat.  The problem is consistency.  The sun would be constantly warming one side of the planet, so even if it wasn't warming it very quickly the overall heat would be continuously increasing to a point, and after some amount of time that side would be scorched.

I also think you're making a lot of assumptions about how particular spells work.  There's nothing saying NMM couldn't cast a spell that requires energy from her that she couldn't find a way to maintain passively.  It's possible a spell uses her energy but doesn't require her to use her horn to keep it going once cast.  Alternately, with the right planning she might be able to cast a spell that lasts a long, long time without any interference.  Or maybe she casts a spell and then finds or creates a way for ordinary ponies to contribute to it, every pony has magic in them after all.

 

I think the big problem in this case though, is that we didn't really see enough of the NMM timeline.  We know she's in charge, and we know it's nighttime, and that's about it.  So, a lot of what each viewer gets out of it will be heavily dependent that viewer's own theories or desires surrounding the timeline, things ultimately outside the setting.

For all we know, the moon can be just as good for growing plants as the sun.  Even on Earth I know there are some things which grow almost exclusively in the dark, and I'm sure once you get magic involved all sorts of options are available: maybe there are plants in the Everfree or elsewhere that grow in moonlight rather than sunlight, those could start to become the dominant crops for Equestria.  Or maybe mages or farmers experiment, modifying plants to grow from moonlight.  Or maybe tiny, artificial suns are developed and devoted to agricultural use.

Alternately, maybe the only way to grow plants is by infusing them with magic directly, and so magic-reduced places become barren, leaving a few spots of green in a mostly barren landscape.

 

At the end of the day, all of these are just possibilities.  I think they could all lead to interesting settings and stories, but I would argue that we didn't get enough from the episode itself to point to any particular one as true.  Arguably, the only thing we can be sure is bad in that scenario is that Equestria is at that point ruled by someone who doesn't understand or doesn't care about being a responsible leader.

My personal headcanon for what happened in that timeline is that, the change to permanent night causes a lot of plants to die off, and then through a combination of natural magic in places like the Everfree and tampering by ponies, you'd start to see more and more plants suited to the night.

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So basically, while you disagree on some specifics, you overall agree with the end result?

 

Well, as far as my theory on their sun goes, in order for what you say to work, her wings would have caught fire regardless of how close to the sun she flew, and the spell degraded prematurely.  "Oh Noes! Twilight's miscalculations almost killed Rarity!"

Jokes aside, I'll go with this being a possibility.

But this would also mean that the vegetation on the "Light side" of the planet would be mostly burnt off, save for a small ring in the "Twilight Zone"  of the planet, for lack of a better word, and because references.  This would mean that the Atmosphere is once again in danger of lacking O2 and containing too much CO2.  Also, this would mean that the "Dark side" of the planet is frozen, and NMM would have to have used a spell to prevent this around her castle as well.  I'm not so sure she and whatever remains could have survived long enough for her to even still be around at the time of this episode.

 

I'll buy into your theory as to how magic works.  Maybe it doesn't require constant focus on it, but only requires focus to cast, and afterwards either sustains itself with her energy, or just lasts a while.  And like you said, Perhaps it COULD draw it's energy from ponies other than the initial caster.

We have no idea how magic works there, only that it exists.

 

I think the big problem in this case though, is that we didn't really see enough of the NMM timeline.  We know she's in charge, and we know it's nighttime, and that's about it.

I agree with this as well.  I never intended for this discussion to go as far as it did.  Discussing the episode as a whole, I made the remark that I disagreed with Twilight's statement about each future being worse than the last, that I believed that the first and second were actually worse than this one in my opinion, and my explanation as to why.  From there, it just kinda boomed into this.  Since it seemed to be a subject of interest, I created it's own topic.  Might as well keep it going.

 

Arguably, the only thing we can be sure is bad in that scenario is that Equestria is at that point ruled by someone who doesn't understand or doesn't care about being a responsible leader.

 

And this is why I think this future is better than the first two.

 

In the first one, It's all out war, and from the looks of things, Equestria is losing.  King Sombra also doesn't seem the type to stop with Equestria, and with every enemy he captures, he gets a new loyal soldier (Assuming those helmets are some form of mind control as they appear to be).

His army actually grows with battle, or at least he has a way to effectively replenish his numbers.  The rest of the world does not.  Given how evil he is portrayed, he probably has his soldiers suicide themselves when captured, making it difficult for his enemies to rescue those he has captured and turned.  Anyway, this would likely become a world wide takeover, and at the end, all that remain are enslaved.  Some by mind control, some by chains, but in both cases, enslaved.

 

I think we can all agree that this is bad, and definitely worse than what we know of the NMM timeline, whether we're only going with what has been shown to be canon, or what has been uncovered thus far through discussion.

 

The second one was the changlings.

The Changelings have been shown to murder everything they're done eating.  Remember what they did to that kingdom of kittens.

To be honest, I don't recall anything that actually shows changlings doing this, or anything about a kingdom of kittens.  (Maybe bramblerose was referring to something in the mini series?  It isn't the only miniseries reference brought up.)

But for sake of argument, I'm going to assume it's true.  The show indicates that Equestria is practically overrun, and Zecoras resistance may very well be the last group standing.  Like with Sombra, I don't see the changlings stopping with Equestria.  Afterall, they would still need to feed, and would likely spread to other nations.  The end result would be all are dead, including the changlings once they have consumed the last of their food supply.

 

Some would argue that this one is worse than Sombras AU, but I personally consider slavery worse than death, so between these two, which one is worse is less "up for debate" and just plain varies from one individual to another.

 

Either way, again, worse than NMM in my opinion.  ESPECIALLY if we go with what I quoted you saying.

 

However, if we go ONLY with what the show reveals, I would rate them from 'worst' to 'not quite as bad':

 

1) Losing side of a war with Sombra, fighting an army of mind controlled slaves

2) War with changlings that feed on love.  It isn't shown that they kill.

3) No war, it's just dark, and you have an uncaring leader.

 

STILL results in me disagreeing with Twilights statement.

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On the 'kingdom of kittens' I think one of the first comics featured changelings attacking something like that very briefly.  They did seem to drain it completely/to death, though as with anything relating to changelings there's a lot left open to interpretation.

 

So basically, while you disagree on some specifics, you overall agree with the end result?

 Sort of.  I definitely agree with some points, and disagree with others.  On the general idea of 'how bad is the NMM timeline?', which seemed to be the main point of discussion, I think it comes down to interpretation.

The question can morph into 'how bad should the NMM timeline be?', which I think has to be considered very differently.

 

 

I'll buy into your theory as to how magic works.  Maybe it doesn't require constant focus on it, but only requires focus to cast, and afterwards either sustains itself with her energy, or just lasts a while.  And like you said, Perhaps it COULD draw it's energy from ponies other than the initial caster.

We have no idea how magic works there, only that it exists.

FiM tends to keep magic pretty vague (for obvious reasons, I think).  There aren't a lot of rules about what skills are needed for what spells, and how the energy put into a spell relates to its duration, area of effect or complexity, etc.  I know that in the show I have seen magic that lasts a long time (Discord being turned to stone), I have seen magic being embedded in artifacts allowing it to persist (alicorn amulet), and I have seen ponies drained of magic which is then put to another purpose (tirek).  So I think each of these presents a possibility, though we don't know and thus would probably have to invent 

 

 

 

And this is why I think this future is better than the first two.

 

In the first one, It's all out war, and from the looks of things, Equestria is losing.  King Sombra also doesn't seem the type to stop with Equestria, and with every enemy he captures, he gets a new loyal soldier (Assuming those helmets are some form of mind control as they appear to be).

His army actually grows with battle, or at least he has a way to effectively replenish his numbers.  The rest of the world does not.  Given how evil he is portrayed, he probably has his soldiers suicide themselves when captured, making it difficult for his enemies to rescue those he has captured and turned.  Anyway, this would likely become a world wide takeover, and at the end, all that remain are enslaved.  Some by mind control, some by chains, but in both cases, enslaved.

 

I think we can all agree that this is bad, and definitely worse than what we know of the NMM timeline, whether we're only going with what has been shown to be canon, or what has been uncovered thus far through discussion.

 

The second one was the changlings.

 

To be honest, I don't recall anything that actually shows changlings doing this, or anything about a kingdom of kittens.  (Maybe bramblerose was referring to something in the mini series?  It isn't the only miniseries reference brought up.)

But for sake of argument, I'm going to assume it's true.  The show indicates that Equestria is practically overrun, and Zecoras resistance may very well be the last group standing.  Like with Sombra, I don't see the changlings stopping with Equestria.  Afterall, they would still need to feed, and would likely spread to other nations.  The end result would be all are dead, including the changlings once they have consumed the last of their food supply.

 

Some would argue that this one is worse than Sombras AU, but I personally consider slavery worse than death, so between these two, which one is worse is less "up for debate" and just plain varies from one individual to another.

 

Either way, again, worse than NMM in my opinion.  ESPECIALLY if we go with what I quoted you saying.

 

However, if we go ONLY with what the show reveals, I would rate them from 'worst' to 'not quite as bad':

 

1) Losing side of a war with Sombra, fighting an army of mind controlled slaves

2) War with changlings that feed on love.  It isn't shown that they kill.

3) No war, it's just dark, and you have an uncaring leader.

 

STILL results in me disagreeing with Twilights statement.

 

I'll admit this is an angle I hadn't really considered.  It's an interesting way of looking at it, though I'm not convinced Twilight was wrong just yet.

 

Here's the pattern I noticed with all of them though: they seem to be presented in order of descending existence of Equestria.

The Sombra timeline seemed like total war, rather than necessarily a losing war.  It's not necessary that Sombra was winning, it's that Equestria had to be entirely devoted to fighting in order to keep going.  Though this could just be my interpretation.

in the Chrysalis timeline, what's left of Equestria are either scattered pockets of resistance, or just one in particular.  There are a few ponies who keep the ideals alive, but the nation is just fragments.  Also, I think Chrysalis would at some point run 'pony farms' or managed pony settlements to keep her changelings fed, though again we don't see enough to really find out one way or another..

In the NMM timeline, there is no evidence that Equestria (as we know it) is anything but history.  While I will agree that the ponies we see don't look that uncomfortable, I would argue that what Twilight was really referring to is that there is no resistance to NMM.  This is a timeline where the war is completely lost, and Equestria is fully subjugated.  Even all the previous element bearers (by the look of things) have fallen to her.  It's also worth noting that we only see her personal staff, and that Ponyville doesn't seem to exist at all, now being just a clearing in the woods.

The one after that is the Final Wasteland, where not only does there not seem to be any Equestria, but there doesn't seem to be any ponies at all.

 

So that's what I think that statement of Twilight's is referring to, each time she goes back the Equestria she knows exists less and less.

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I suppose I can't argue with those angles.

 

With the kittens thing, I believe we aren't supposed to consider the comics as canon to the show.

(Is this something Hasbro says, or are they just generally considered to be non-canon among sites like this?)

Considering this, I suppose death may not be the end result of a 'feeding', and you're right, she may end up running pony 'farms'.

Looking at this as the end result, and comparing it to what I believe the end result of Sombras timeline to be, it's still a bit of a toss up as to which is worse.  Both end in mass slavery in one form or another.  One, you're forced into labor and the other you're a food supply. 

With that in mind, Chrysalis's 'campaign' is shown to be obviously closer to completion, so I suppose those points have swayed my belief on Sombras being worse.  With these things in mind, His now becomes the close second in my mind.

 

And if we only consider the current state of Equestria, and not try to look at what the end result of the timeline (What things will eventually be like) Then you're right.  In Sombras AU, there is a desperate war with a unicorn king commanding a slave army.  Stopping analysis there, life is rough, but if you're far enough from the front lines, that's all it is; rough.

Though I'm still not sure what is worse.  Fighting a war, or living in (RELATIVE) peace, but under a cold and uncaring ruler.  I'm still kinda up in the air with that one.  Either way, it would place this AU back in order with Twi's statement.

 

If we DO try to look ahead and determine the final outcome, NMM's has pretty much come full circle and is set in place.  Not much to analyze about future events, only how things currently are outside of what is shown.

Looking ahead on Sombras, I still see it being total direct enslavement. worse, if only by a little, than living under a tyrannical ruler.

 

In any case, Before this discussions as a whole (not just here, but when I unintentionally hijacked the episode discussion thread) I was firmly in the belief that Sombra was worse than Chrysalis, and NMM was a little better than the two of them.

NOW, I'm leaning more towards them being similar in how bad they are, and which one is worse would vary according to the personal preferences of those living under those circumstances.

One may consider being a food supply for changlings to be worse than being forced into slave labor, and possibly mind controlled, while others would consider it better (Asumming that death isn't a result from the feeding).

And some may consider living in (Relative) peace under a tyrannical ruler better than those two alternatives, where others would consider it worse.

 

Me personally, I'm up in the air still with Sombra and Chrysalis, but still consider NMM's slightly better than those two.

 

 


So that's what I think that statement of Twilight's is referring to, each time she goes back the Equestria she knows exists less and less..

Soo, Flim and Flam cause more harm to the existence of Equestria than Tirek or Discord?  =P

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Ok, lets visit the sun here.

 

You say the reason her wings decayed is a combination of them being fragile (100% agree'd.  This is even said to be the case.) and her flying right into the sun.  (I'll try not to take that too literally. :razz: )

Now, as everyone knows, in our world, most of the warmth we feel comes not directly from the sun, but from the land around us being warmed by it, which is why when we gain altitude and get away from the land, it gets colder, in spite of the fact that we are getting closer to the sun.  The sun is just too far away for a mile or two to make a measurable difference.  In any case, if our sun and their sun were even somewhat similar in size and distance, this would not have happened.

The only way I see it even being POSSIBLE for her to fly close enough to their sun (Without leaving the atmosphere) and the temperature actually increasing, even at all, is if it was MUCH closer to their planet.  Possibly close enough to be near, or in, their atmosphere itself.  This would make it close enough that moving closer actually would cause you to absorb more heat.

And naturally, if it was this close, it would have to be MUCH cooler.  Still hot enough to burn things that get too close, but not hot enough to fry something already pretty high up, like Cloudsdale.  Now given the relatively short distance upwards that rarity flew that made enough of a difference to ignite her wings (And heck, i'm going to assume they are as flammable as gasoline.  Or even better, lets say 10 degrees up from whatever temperature it is in Cloudsdale would be enough.), it would still be a relatively large change in temperature just from that distance alone.

If that distance made a 10 degree difference,  how much of a change of temperature would it be between Cloudsdale and the surface?  Rarity's freefall lasted quite some time after she fell past the arena, so we can assume that the distance between the surface and Cloudsdale is much greater than Cloudsdale and point rarity's wings ignited.  If it's a 10 degree difference from where her wings ignited to Cloudsdale, I would estimate a 70 degree difference between Cloudsdale and the surface.  Practically no heat would reach the surface, even if we assumed Cloudsdale had tropical temperatures.  At least not enough to keep ice from being part of the normal landscape.
And yet, we all see the surface as NOT being a frigid tundra.  Which implies that the atmospheric temperature must be regulated some other way.

 

The only way I can see this not being the case is if her wings were so fragile that they would have ignited anyway, even if she hadn't flown upwards as she did.  In other words, her flying upwards had nothing to do with the fact that they ignited.  Twilight made a miscalculation and almost killed Rarity. :?:

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Her wings alighted because they were already weakened, she'd flown in front of light before, had just done a big, routine that made her sweat, and was putting a strain on the magic, it was also a reference to the story of Icarus, who flew too close to the sun and his wings were destroyed, this has nothing to do with the sun, it was a magical mishap, and a new spell to Twilight.

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So, a miscalculation by Twilight nearly killing off Rarity.

I'm game for that one.  I'm going to re-watch that episode and pay closer attention to what happens during the routine.

See if anything can be confirmed.

 

Ok, I re-watched it.

Now she doesn't begin sweating until she flies upward towards the sun, but this could just be the point at which she starts becoming tired, not necessarily from the heat.

It also shows her wings smoking at the tips closest to the sun before igniting and flash burning away.  If proximity to the sun wasn't a factor, they would have been smoking all over from the failing magic, likely not just the tips nearest the sun.  (And if flying closer to it can make a difference, we're back to my theory above)

And third, the spell should have lasted for 3 days.  MAYBE Twilight miscalculated something.

And as for it being a reference to the story of Icarus, that story would require a similar situation as what i'm suggesting above.  And if I'm not mistaken, some cultures back then really did believe that the sun was much closer.  Close enough that the birds could reach it, so this idea is probably what they had in mind back then, which I believe would also imply that Equestrias sun works similarly to how it was believed to work in certain mythologies.  Change a few details like, rather than a god pulling it across the sky with his chariot, we have the 'goddess' Celestia move it with magic, and there ya go.  Ancient mythology being the real thing in the world of MLP.

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